Maybe Another Ceasefire Will Happen Soon

Israel's Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is on her way to the US to sign an agreement to help stop the smuggling of arms into Gaza, and another minister is going back to Cairo to talk to Hamas. It looks like a ceasefire is in the works, with a more permanent solution to follow. If this gets resolved before January 20, do you think the whole thing was purposely orchestrated?

The Jerusalem Post reports: "Although details of the potential cease-fire agreement are still fluid, the basic parameters are an immediate end to the fighting followed by an IDF withdrawal after it becomes clear Hamas has stopped firing rockets on Israel.

Once Israel pulls out, Egypt - together with technical and logistical assistance from the international community - will establish a mechanism to stop arms smuggling. This will be augmented by the agreement between Israel and the US.

The next step will be indirect talks through the Egyptians regarding the opening of the Gaza crossings and the release of kidnapped soldier St.-Sgt. Gilad Schalit. According to Israeli officials, what still needed to be worked out was a timetable for the IDF withdrawal, as well as the duration of the cease-fire.

In addition, according to various reports, certain disagreements have emerged regarding some arrangements. For instance, on the question of the Rafah crossing, both Israel and Egypt want to see it opened under EU monitors, with a Palestinian Authority presence, and not Hamas. Hamas, however, is demanding a presence as well.

As to the Philadelphi Corridor, Israel was interested in a significant international presence, while both Egypt and Hamas were opposed.

Hamas officials told Egypt they were prepared to accept a one-year truce, with the possibility of subsequent renewals, provided that Israel withdrew all troops from Gaza within five to seven days and all border crossings were immediately opened, diplomatic sources said. They also sought international guarantees that the crossings would stay open, the sources added."

There are two major groups of Hamas, one based in Damascus, and the other decimated in Gaza.

Osama bin Laden's taped message had more resonance in the Middle East, and shows why there has been a surge in al Qaeda recruiting. UPI reports: "Muslims are united in sympathy for you after what they have seen and heard," bin Laden tells the Palestinians, adding that extremist fighters in Iraq and Afghanistan "are also being bombarded by the same aircraft, and they lose their dearest family members in the same way that you have."

It is not just bin Laden who sees this sympathetic connection as a key to the success of his project, according to Marc Sageman, a psychologist who has studied the radicalization process now widely understood as the key to extremist recruitment.

The sense of "moral outrage" created by "large moral violations globally such as … Muslims being killed in Gaza right now" is a key factor, Sageman told a conference at the Cato Institute in Washington this week.

"This is not about what people think, but how they feel," said Sageman of radicalization, adding that the outrage "activates a sense of collective identity" that can be exploited by extremist recruiters, or lead to so-called self-radicalization, for instance on the Internet.

"It has to be framed a certain way," said Sageman. "The frame right now is very simple: This is a war against Islam.

"This is going to cause a problem," he concluded."