Saturday, March 21, 2009

Oh Bah Bah Bah, Bah Iran...


Barack Obama tried wishing the leaders of Iran a happy Persian New Year, in another attempt at a diplomatic reaching out. Iran's (somehow I always think of the Woody Allen movie Sleeper when I see these two words) Supreme Leader 
Ayatollah Khamenei dismissed it as empty rhetoric.

Obama: "You have that right - but it comes with real responsibilities, and that place cannot be reached through terror or arms, but rather through peaceful actions that demonstrate the true greatness of the Iranian people and civilisation," he said.

"The measure of that greatness is not the capacity to destroy, it is your demonstrated ability to build and create."

The Arab News solicited reactions from a rather diverse crowd: “In almost every aspect, Obama’s approach is the opposite of that of President George Bush,” said Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council. (Obama) referred to the ‘Islamic Republic of Iran,’ the formal name of Iran after the 1979 revolution, indicating his acceptance of the revolution and the reality of the current government ... Perhaps most importantly, Obama signaled America’s strategic intent to achieve constructive ties between the United States and Iran. This is essential as he declared that the American endgame is to have a positive relationship with Iran and that he intends to put the destructive enmity of the past three decades behind them.”

“We welcome the wish of the president of the United States to put away past differences,” Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s press adviser Ali Akbar Javanfekr told AFP in reaction to Obama’s message.

Obama’s landmark call drew international praise, with world leaders hoping Tehran will react positively to Washington’s olive branch.

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana voiced hope that Obama’s message would mark the start of a “new chapter” in relations between Washington and Tehran.

“I think it is a very constructive message,” Solana said in Brussels. “I hope very much that the Iranians will pay good attention to what has been said by President Obama, I hope very much that Tehran will act intelligently.”

French President Nicolas Sarkozy told reporters after a European Union summit in Brussels that Obama’s speech was “good news.” Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini praised Obama, saying he “has shown great leadership.” “It is a big change ... in the direction hoped for by Italy,” Frattini told reporters, adding the ball was now back in the Iranian court."

And the BBC got some reactions from people on the street: "Obama's message is very, very positive. The tone and the content is completely different to that of the previous administration. There have been so many missed opportunities in last decade and a half.
I think the Iranian government should respond immediately and not miss this opportunity to open a balanced dialogue with the US.

President Ahmadinejad has the support of the leadership and he has more authority than other recent presidents, so ironically, I think he could be the one to make progress.
All it needs now is for action to follow these words."


AKBAR, in Tehran: "I don't think dialogue with the US is a good idea because we've got too many of our own problems to sort out. We're having presidential elections in June and a possible change of personalities at the top. And what is the new administration actually offering, that George Bush didn't? Americans are a liability to Iran, they bring trouble.
I think it's absurd to talk about dialogue at a time like this. So many things are unclear: huge inflation inside Iran, our political turmoil, the falling dollar. Better relations with the US wouldn't make a damn bit of difference. There is no substance in this, it's just petty talk."


REZA, in Tehran: "President Obama has sent a green light to Iran, but I worry that our leadership won't see it. I think they will interpret this as the US trying to make a deal with us because we are powerful. I travel a lot for work, so I can see how Ahmadinejad's presidency has damaged our credibility abroad. For our Supreme Leader, an approach from the US means something fishy is going on. The Iranian government is spending money on Hezbollah instead of our own people. For our Supreme Leader, the sight of the US approaching means something fishy is going on. I would like Iran to deal with the world in a friendly way. We shouldn't target Israel, we should be friendly."

ARASH, in Mashad: "This is very good news. It's a very nice, sweet message for the people of Iran. My family and I saw it on BBC Persian TV, I think the channel broadcast the entire clip.
It will take several hours for Iranian websites and politicians to respond.
But I do think it's the beginning of a new era. People must realise that this is a real chance to change the relationship between the government of Iran and the new government of the US.
I think some of Iran's big leaders, like [Supreme leader] Ali Khamenei, don't have a clear opinion about the changes taking place: the new attitude in the White House, the active diplomacy, which is the complete opposite of the errors of Mr Bush.
So many people in Iran say, "The US president must take action to demonstrate he can be trusted." But I don't agree. I think the Iranian government must take action too, to show the world that they are trustworthy."


Of course, the thorn in the lion's paw is what to do about Iran's nuclear program. In 2005, there was a European proposal that, as reported in Tehran Bureau: "Iran would agree to limit, but not to end, its uranium enrichment. In other words, Iran would restrict the number of centrifuges it used for the enrichment process to what was called “laboratory level” enrichment. This would be done under full UN inspection, including the snap-inspection system of the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty (Iran has not implemented the protocol since 2006, when the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency referred it to the UN security council).

The beauty of the idea – it was never officially formulated – is that it would allow the Iranian leadership to claim “victory” because the west would have recognized its “absolute” right to nuclear technology.

But it would also impose limits on Iran’s programme, which today continues to expand, and it would bring the programme under far closer UN supervision.

Iran’s critics – especially in the American right and in Israel – would resist such an agreement on the grounds that it accepts Iran’s mastery of enrichment technology. They point out, quite rightly, that the same methods used to enrich for energy can be used to manufacture a bomb.
But sooner or later, if Barack Obama is serious about engaging Iran, he will have to decide whether he is prepared for such a compromise over the nuclear issue.

He may well decide that other areas offer a better earlier chance of progress: co-operation over Afghanistan and Iraq, where the two sides have clear common interests, is the obvious choice.
Obama may have already decided that some kind of engagement with Syria, even if it leads nowhere, can deliver a “peace process” that itself seems like a foreign policy success. He may also have already decided to leave any real initiative over Tehran until after June’s presidential election, which may help clarify the balance of internal forces in Iran.

But if engagement is really to succeed, Obama will sooner or later have to grasp the nuclear nettle.

So here are some late night Iranian jokes:

"The bad news is Iran is capable of making a nuclear bomb. The good news is they have to drop it from a camel." --David Letterman

"It's now believed Iran has the capability to make nuclear weapons but hasn't done it yet. Which could be big trouble, because if there's one thing the Bush Administration won’t tolerate, it’s a middle eastern country that could have weapons of mass destruction, that doesn’t." --Jay Leno

"Iran said they will inflict harm and pain on the United States if we try to stop their nuclear program. Who's writing their speeches now -- Mr. T?" --Jay Leno

"France and Germany warned Iran this week not to pursue their nuclear research program. In fact, France and Germany warned Iran that if they didn't stop their program they would, you know, warn them again." --Jay Leno

"President Bush criticized the election process in Iran. He said there are groups there who try and suppress the vote, power there is in the hands of the very few, and the whole thing is dominated by religion. Hey, that is our system." --Jay Leno

"Russia has agreed to help Iran build a nuclear reactor. Yeah, because when you think well-built nuclear reactor you think Russia" --David Letterman

"The president said today the U.S. does not intend to attack Iran but then he said quote 'but you never want a president to say never.' And he said if his position does change he will make that information public in a time-honored appropriate manner -- by leaking it to a gay prostitute." --Bill Maher

"It's been reported that in the event of an emergency situation with North Korea the U.S. is prepared to send 70% of the Marine Corps to the region. According to President Bush this will still allow us to send another 70% to Iran and keep our other 70% in Iraq." --Tina Fey

"Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned Iran not to develop their nuclear weapons program. She said, 'President Bush has a map in his office, and he will find you eventually.'" --Jay Leno


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