Surviving in a Post Obama World

Paul Krugman
Eugene Robinson



An unprescedented number of people are voting in Iran today, by the millions, the polls may have to extend their hours. It's expected that Mr Ahmedinejad will lose, but many don't count him out, as reported by the BBC: "And yet, no-one should underestimate Mr Ahmadinejad's ability to secure and maintain power.He still has the support of the government machine, the military, the Revolutionary Guards, and the state owned media. Whatever their immediate differences, Ayatollah Khamenei seems to have a soft spot for his controversial president.

A glimpse of how Mr Ahmadinejad uses the levers of power emerged during the last week, when he was accused by rivals of using the government's resources to bus huge numbers of supporters into his rallies across the country. It is claimed that whenever the president visits provincial cities, schools and government offices are closed for the day, so that students and soldiers can swell the numbers at his rallies.

By contrast one candidate was recently refused permission to speak in a provincial city, because it was said he would cause traffic problems.

Mr Ahmadinejad will certainly be hoping to benefit from the votes of members of the revolutionary guards, the Basij militia, possibly also civil servants and teachers. And he has been working hard for support in the countryside, with many villagers benefitting from home loans, water supplies, electricity, even telephones, for the first time.

The challenge for his rivals is to persuade enough of the malcontents to go out and vote."

Whatever the outcome, the sheer amount of people that were out at night and demonstrating may change Iran's policies and attitudes. No more gonzo Ahmedinejd, and no more axis of evil. Iran may yet get to be the player they want to be in Middle Eastern politics, and they may owe it all to Barack Obama. Or, to paraphrase a well worn slogan, they will have change they can believe in...Anway, it will take longer than expected to count the results and even then someone may throw a Norm Coleman fit...

And what will happen when the ineitable backlash occurs, the magic wears off from Obama's speeches, and Washington makes pragmatic diplomatic mitakes? Here are some excerpts from a ForeignPolicy article - Gabor Steinhart from der Speigel: "In Cairo, Obama spoke with the tongue of angels because he avoided addressing some inconvenient truths. Yes, he wants the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, but only after a victory over the Taliban. Yes, he will close Guantánamo, but the hunt for terrorists will continue. Yes, America wants peace, but not on the conditions of the Prophet Mohammed.

Obama is not another Jimmy Carter. Very soon we will see him turn, like his predecessors, to realpolitik, which features negotiations, ultimatums, sanctions, and yes, threats of war. And if diplomacy proves fruitless, Obama will be left with no choice. He will begin once again sending American or Israeli fighter jets into the sky. He is a new actor, but one still playing in the old theater."

Alvaro Vargas LLosa: "But even if there is no real cause and effect between Obama's policies and these hopeful signs, the perception that he is effecting change could strengthen moderates and debilitate extremists. The fact that even Hamas had positive things to say about the U.S. president's speech at Cairo University means that, in the new environment, the Gaza-based organization may engage with the Palestinian Authority. The fact that Obama is asking Iran to negotiate may help Ahmadinejad's emboldened domestic foes make their case against the theocrats. The fact that in his speech Obama sent a clear message for a two-state solution and against the expansion of West Bank settlements to Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu may help Muslim liberals push back against al Qaeda and its allies in the Middle East. And the new tone vis-à-vis Cuba has placed the ball in Raúl Castro's court, forcing him to justify himself if he rejects change.

In foreign policy, Obama's political talent has consisted so far in giving the impression of momentous change without having altered much of what he inherited from George W. Bush. Perhaps the mere fact that so many people are convinced that there is a substantial difference might make it easier for others to stand for common sense without appearing to be lackeys of the empire."

Lydia Khalil: "Steering clear of the Bush administration's earnest, but misguided, democratization policies, the Obama administration has opted to speak directly to the peoples of the Middle East instead of pressuring the regimes to be more democratic. 

In countries like Lebanon, where citizens can participate in open elections, Obama's message directly to the people can, and likely does, resonate. But it is important to remember that the vast majority of countries in the Middle East are not democracies -- they are barely participatory. In such cases, it doesn't much matter if Obama has a positive message for the man on the street. If the average Ahmed has little to no say in how his country is governed, Obama's words cannot truly carry their full effect.

Take the site of the president's much-praised address to Muslims: Egypt. Once called "the mother of the world," the country is governed by an ossified, out-of-touch regime that is hemorrhaging political, economic, and cultural relevance. Most Egyptians are far removed from their government. So long as this remains the case, Obama's outreach efforts will not even be able to change the politics of the country where he gave his landmark speech, let alone the wider region."

Ramez Maluf: "It is because he himself personifies those principles that his speech to the Muslim world made a significant impact. With the State Department providing advance translations in 17 languages (described by the press as "elegant"), the speech was broadcast around the world and seen by tens of millions. Never before has a U.S. president addressed the Muslim world in just such fashion and never has an American leader enjoyed such a wide and attentive audience. Obama could make that speech because of who he is; similar words, spoken by a George W. Bush or a John McCain, would have fallen on cynical ears.

Obama is a welcome addition to the international stage. The Lebanese, as with most Arabs, are tired of the confrontation with the West, and would like a new beginning. Obama seems to be the right man to lead us into a new relationship. However, the new president will also have to walk the walk and address the issues he articulated in his Cairo speech. Many expect that he will do so.

Others, the hard-nosed and maybe the more realistic, fear that the other America -- the America of neoconservatives, of apocalyptic Christian Zionists, of cynical politicians, of amoral businessmen -- will again prevail. Should that happen, for relations with the Arab and Muslim worlds, it would be nothing short of a catastrophe."

late night jokes:

"Did you see the speech? It was his longest one ever and a high degree of difficulty you'd have to say. Someone asked Obama before the address, 'How're you going to address this cultural women-oppressing, religious fanatics?' And he said, 'Same as Notre Dame.'" --Bill Maher

"It went well with Muslims around the world. They were very impressed, including Muslim Americans right here at home. One Muslim American said it gave him great hope that some day he could go through airport security without pretending to be Mexican." --Bill Maher

"Republican Sen. Inhofe, he's a douche bag, he said it was un-American. These guys are just jealous that when this President goes to Middle East, nobody throws a shoe at him." --Bill Maher

"Un-American? It was intelligent; it was broad-minded; it was nuanced. Oh he's right. It is un-American." --Bill Maher

"I got something to tell you Mr. Inhofe, Obama's speech was produced right here in the U.S.A and the rest of the world is buying it, which is more than I can say for General Motors." --Bill Maher

"And with all this going on, did you see what Sarah Palin said yesterday? She made a speech in Alaska and she said that the money the federal government is sending to states to help bail out, well that's not good, because that's the federal government getting in there and trying to 'control people.' Yes that's right, Sarah, it's all about the Federal Reserve making your daughter use a condom." --Bill Maher

"Speaking of Republican icons, Nancy Reagan this week was in the capital to unveil a statue of her late husband, Ronald Reagan, and she had lunch at the White House with Michelle Obama. I'm not sure she really knows who Michelle Obama is, cause she told her to really dust, not just move things around." --Bill Maher

"President Obama gave a big historic speech yesterday in Egypt. President Obama impressed listeners by beginning his speech with the traditional Islamic greeting, "Salaam Aleikum." Yea, it's very cool. Yea it was especially impressive because a year ago, President Bush opened with 'Shalom Amigos.'" --Conan O'Brien

"President Obama gave the speech at Egypt's Cairo University. The crowd at Cairo University loved Obama's speech, especially the joke he made about their rival, Cairo State. It's a safety school." --Conan O'Brien

"The favorite show to win to musical Tony this year is a show about a former Vice President, have you seen it? Cheney Get Your Gun." --David Letterman

"Here's something kind of cool, apparently the Obamas, the President and his wife Michelle, every Friday night they have a date. Were you aware of this? Friday night is date night for the Obamas. And last week, they came to New York City and they went to a show, and they had dinner at a restaurant and I thought, 'Oh no, now the wife's going to get ideas.' But it's interesting, a Democratic president dating his wife. You know what Bill Clinton said? When he heard about that, he said, 'Run that by me again.'"  --David Letterman

"On this day in 1925, the Chrysler Corporation was founded and had it lived, it would be 84 years old today. Founded in 1925 and lucky for you stock is still available at 1925 prices." --David Letterman

"President Obama's continuing his world tour. Yesterday he was in Egypt, did you see that? He visited the Pyramids of Giza. And he called them 'awe-inspiring.' That was an improvement over President Bush's tour of the pyramids. He called them 'pointy. They're like a triangle.'" --Jimmy Fallon

"A nude photo of Carla Bruni, the first lady of France, sold at an auction Thursday for $19,000. The buyer reportedly said [imitating Bill Clinton], 'Worth every penny.'" --Jimmy Fallon